AdventHealth 400 Picks 2024: NASCAR Betting Odds & Preview for Kansas Speedway

Kyle Larson enters Sunday's race as the favorite to win at Kansas Speedway, and they lead our AdventHealth 400 picks based on the best NASCAR odds from our best sports betting sites.

Denny Hamlin is the hottest driver in the NASCAR Cup Series after holding off Kyle Larson last week to win the Wurth 400. Our best sportsbooks expect Larson to return the favor Sunday in the 2024 AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway, which will begin on FS1 once the track dries following a rain delay:

Larson and Hamlin, co-favorites by the latest NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds, lead the odds this weekend after a tense battle over the final 75 laps at Dover Motor Speedway. It was a similar story in last year's AdventHealth 400, when Larson led a race-high 85 laps before Hamlin passed him on the final lap to win - the only time that's ever happened at Kansas Speedway.

Christopher Bell is also among the front-runners after winning the pole for Sunday's race. He's followed by Ross Chastain and Noah Gragson on the starting grid.

Here are our 2024 AdventHealth 400 picks for Sunday's race at Kansas Speedway (NASCAR odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

AdventHealth 400 picks

• Favorite: Kyle Larson (+380 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Long shot: Chase Elliott (+1200 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
• Prop: Toyota to win (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Pick to win: Denny Hamlin (+450 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

* Picks and accompanying odds from before qualifying

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Odds to win 2024 AdventHealth 400

Odds as of Sunday at 10:15 a.m. ET

AdventHealth 400 field

This year's field features nine former winners at Kansas Speedway, the 1.5-mile tri-oval that serves as the quintessential intermediate track for the Next Gen car with its 15-degree progressive banking on the corners and wide passing lanes on straightaways.

That setup typically rewards experienced drivers who can navigate this worn concrete track, which puts pit strategy and cerebral driving at the forefront. Unsurprisingly, nobody owns more wins here than Hamlin, whose victory in 2023 was his third career win in the AdventHealth 400 and fourth at Kansas Speedway.

Toyota has dominated at this track as of late, winning seven of the last nine races and all four in the Next Gen era (since 2022). Three of those wins came courtesy of the 23XI Racing team, which is fittingly co-owned by Hamlin. The fourth was by Hamlin himself.

AdventHealth 400 expert predictions

Favorite: Kyle Larson ⭐⭐⭐

Larson led the most laps in both races here in 2023, and he's run in the top 10 in five straight tries with a win in 2021 and two runner-up finishes. He likely would have won last year's AdventHealth 400 if not for a controversial "tap-and-pass" from Hamlin on the final lap.

While Larson has come oh-so-close in four Kansas races in the Next Gen car, he owns the most wins at intermediate tracks in this car (three) and scored his lone win of the season at the 1.5-mile track at Las Vegas, where he led 181 of 267 laps in a dominant victory. He'll almost certainly be in contention on Sunday.

Best odds: +380 via FanDuel

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Long shot: Chase Elliott ⭐⭐⭐

After a tough start to the season, Elliott has turned it on with four top-fives in his last five races, including a win at the 1.5-mile track at Texas. He's also been electric at Kansas with an average finish (10.6) that ranks first among active drivers and sixth-best all time.

Elliott became the youngest driver (22) to ever win at Kansas in 2018, and he led 47 laps in his last race here in September before eventually finishing sixth. That followed a seventh-place run in the spring race, and his two career P2s rank fourth in this year's field.

I love Elliott's odds to finish in the top five (+180 via bet365), which he's done six times in 16 races here, but he's certainly a live bet to win outright.

Best odds: +1200 via BetMGM

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Prop: Toyota to win ⭐⭐⭐⭐

As we mentioned above, Toyota has won seven of the last nine races at Kansas, including all four in the Next Gen era. Some of that can be attributed to a strong lineup, but the manufacturer has clearly nailed the setup for this track.

While the speed has been there for Toyota, this track especially rewards precision drivers who can survive close encounters with the wall, which has been the downfall of early leaders in previous years. It doesn't hurt that Joe Gibbs Racing and 23XI Racing have combined to win this race in four straight years - experience that should pay off Sunday.

With three of the top four favorites and six of the top 10 driving a Toyota this weekend, I love the value on these -110 odds, which represent an implied probability of 52.38% with a $19.09 payout on a winning $10 wager per our odds converter.

Best odds: -110 via Caesars

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Pick to win: Denny Hamlin ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Could it really be anyone else? Hamlin has won three of the last seven races after his gutsy win at Dover last week, and his history at this track is hard to ignore.

Hamlin has won three of his last nine races at Kansas, and he likely would have won a fourth if not for a late caution in last year's fall race that halted his chance at a clean sweep. Even so, he's the only driver to finish in the top five in all four Next Gen races at this track, even with an average start outside the top 15.

Toyota has cracked the code on this track, and Hamlin has been at the forefront of that recent success. Even at these +450 odds, which pay out $55 on a $10 bet, there's still plenty of value on another trip to victory lane for the No. 11.

Best odds: +450 via bet365

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Past AdventHealth 400 winners

AdventHealth 400 info

• Date: Sunday, May 5 at 3 p.m. ET
• Track: Kansas Speedway
• Length: 1.5 miles (267 laps)
• How to watch: FS1
• Defending winner: Denny Hamlin

AdventHealth 400 picks made Friday at 8 p.m. ET

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